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Gold serves as a strong portfolio diversifier amid fiscal easing and geopolitical risks. U.S. growth is expected to outpace other economies, with potential fiscal expansions in Germany and China. However, sector concentration in technology raises concerns about sustainability and valuations as earnings surprises decline.
Dalal Street experienced a nearly 1% gain for the week ending November 29, buoyed by easing geopolitical tensions, a strong BJP victory in Maharashtra, and falling oil prices. The market is expected to remain rangebound with a positive bias, focusing on the upcoming RBI policy, US jobs data, and PMI numbers, while the BSE Sensex rose to 79,803 and the Nifty 50 to 24,131. Stability will hinge on economic data, with investors keenly awaiting the RBI's monetary policy decisions.
Wells Fargo raised MSCI's price target from $570 to $600, maintaining an "equal weight" rating, while Redburn Atlantic upgraded it to "buy" with a $680 target. UBS lowered its target from $695 to $680, and the stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" with an average target of $631.83. MSCI reported a quarterly EPS of $3.86, exceeding estimates, and announced a quarterly dividend of $1.60, reflecting a 1.05% yield.
Global stock markets experienced a rally on Friday, with Wall Street achieving its largest monthly gain in a year, driven by post-election growth optimism. The S&P 500 rose 0.56%, marking a 5.14% increase for November, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.83%, securing a 6.2% monthly gain. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened amid expectations of stronger rates in Japan and easing in Europe.
Stocks are on the rise with the S&P 500 up 0.34% in early trading, aiming for its best monthly gain since November 2023. The Nasdaq Composite is also performing well, on track for its strongest month since May with a 0.53% increase. Meanwhile, the MSCI's global stock index is 0.26% higher, indicating a positive trend across markets. Bitcoin has surged to $98,000.
After 38 consecutive sessions of selling, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers on November 25, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,948 crore amid positive market sentiment following Maharashtra's elections and MSCI rejig. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net sold Rs 6,908 crore, ending a 13-session buying streak. Year-to-date, FIIs have net sold Rs 2.84 lakh crore, while DIIs have net bought Rs 5.56 lakh crore in shares.
The Indian rupee experienced its strongest single-day gain since June, closing at 84.2875 against the US dollar, up 0.2%. This surge was driven by dollar inflows from MSCI's global equity index rebalancing, alongside a weaker dollar and declining US bond yields. The dollar index fell 0.5% to 106.8, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 7 basis points to 4.34%.
US markets are buoyed by optimism surrounding Trump's potential policies, with the MSCI USA equity index up 4.6% this month and 25% year-to-date. Despite geopolitical tensions, investors remain confident, believing that nuclear threats from Russia are bluster and that Trump's return could stabilize the Ukraine conflict. The promise of AI advancements and a resilient market, exemplified by Bitcoin's rise, further fuels this bullish sentiment.
UBS Global Wealth Management forecasts a more than 10% rise in the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, citing a healthy US economy and justified valuations. The firm highlights opportunities in mega-cap tech and AI-related semiconductors, while also favoring utilities and financial stocks. Globally, it anticipates a 15% increase in the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, with Taiwan and India as attractive markets, while European equities are expected to underperform.
European companies are facing a downturn, with the MSCI Europe Index reporting a 0.3% revenue decline in Q3, contrary to expectations of 0.4% growth. Only 30% of firms surpassed sales estimates, marking the lowest performance in nearly five years, leading to reduced earnings forecasts for 2025.
MSCI Inc.
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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